The Unexpected Effect of AI Coding Tools

AI coding tools like Cursor and Claude Code are having a slightly unexpected effect:

They are not replacing engineers per se; instead, like all good tools, they provide leverage. But leverage is only valuable if it has something to lever on.

It turns out that computer science fundamentals, architectural experience, and judgement are more important than ever before.

• Top engineers are multiple times more effective (and growing)
• Mediocre engineers are just as mediocre as before
• Poor engineers are actually worse than before, because now their decisions are multiplied

I think this explains why senior hiring has picked up, and junior hiring has fallen off a cliff.

But here I also disagree with the zeitgeist: You should aim to hire seniors and AI-native juniors.

Motivated, hardworking individuals can learn faster than ever before. Young people who leverage AI can teach organizations new ways of working.

A combination of experienced seniors making highly leveraged architectural decisions, plus AI-native juniors showing what's possible, is hard to beat.